AAA: More Than 47M Americans to Celebrate With an Independence Day Getaway

AAA: More Than 47M Americans to Celebrate With an Independence Day Getaway

Travel expected to increase 40% compared to last July 4, reaching the second-highest travel volume on record
April S. Engram
july 4th travel forecast

More than 47.7 million Americans will travel this Independence Day weekend (July 1–5). Travel volumes are expected to nearly fully recover to pre-pandemic levels. In fact, this will be the second-highest Independence Day travel volume on record, trailing only 2019. Overall, just 2.5% fewer Americans are expected to travel this year compared to Independence Day in 2019. This represents an increase of nearly 40% compared to last year, when total travel fell to 34.2 million.

While all modes of travel will see increased demand this Independence Day, road trips continue to dominate this summer. Despite the highest gas prices in seven years, more than 91% of holiday travel will be by car. An expected 43.6 million Americans will drive to their destinations, the highest on record for this holiday and 5% more than the previous record set in 2019. With 3.5 million people planning to fly, air travel volumes this Independence Day will reach 90% of pre-pandemic levels, and increase 164% compared to last year.

“Travel is in full swing this summer, as Americans eagerly pursue travel opportunities they’ve deferred for the last year-and-a-half,” said Paula Twidale, senior vice president, AAA Travel. “We saw strong demand for travel around Memorial Day and the kick-off of summer, and all indications now point to a busy Independence Day to follow.”

Another 620,000 Americans are expected to travel by other modes this Independence Day, an increase of over 72% compared to last year, but 83% lower than in 2019. This includes travel by bus, train, and the return of cruising. Cruise lines have announced limited sailings resuming from U.S. ports beginning in late June. AAA reminds travelers who make the personal decision to take a cruise that a travel agent can help advise on: cancelation policies, what to expect on your cruise, and travel insurance options to help protect your health and travel investment before and during your vacation.
 

2021 Independence Day Holiday Travelers
  Total     Automobile Air     Other
(Bus, Train, Cruise)
2021 (Forecast) 47.7M 43.6M 3.5M 620,000
2020 (Actual)* 34.2M 32.5M 1.3M  359,000
2019 (Actual) 48.9M 41.5M 3.9M 3.5M
Change (2019 to 2021) −2.5% +5.1% −10.3%  −82.5%
Change (2020 to 2021) +39.6%  +34.1% +163.8% +72.7%

*AAA did not issue an Independence Day holiday travel forecast in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, actual travel volumes were recorded after the holiday for comparison purposes this year.


Top Destinations & Resources to Plan Your Trip
AAA Travel booking data also indicate a strong travel recovery for summer. Theme parks in Orlando and southern California are topping the list of Independence Day destinations this year.

Top Independence Day Travel Destinations:

  1. Orlando, FL
  2. Anaheim, CA
  3. Denver, CO
  4. Las Vegas, NV
  5. Seattle, WA 
  6. Chicago, IL
  7. New York, NY
  8. Atlanta, GA
  9. Boston, MA
  10. Kahului, Maui, HI

*Based on AAA Travel advance air and tour bookings, July 1–5, 2021

graphic

When planning a trip, refer to the new AAA Digital TourBook guides at TourBook.AAA.com. Available on smartphone, tablet or desktop, the new interactive guides feature detailed information, must-see attractions, sample itineraries, and more. 

To meet the needs of today’s travelers, AAA is enhancing its Diamond inspections. Hotels that meet AAA’s standards for cleanliness, condition, and new surface cleanliness testing will now be recognized as Inspected Clean and assigned a Diamond designation. AAA inspectors will begin identifying Inspected Clean properties later this month. In the meantime, AAA’s Best of Housekeeping badge offers peace of mind. Prior to any hotel stay, call ahead to ensure your hotel is open and ask what precautions they are taking to protect guests.

Long Delays Expected for Drivers
INRIX, in collaboration with AAA, predicts drivers will experience the worst congestion heading into the holiday weekend as commuters leave work early and mix with holiday travelers, along with the return trip on Monday mid-day. Major metro areas across the U.S. could see nearly double the delays verses typical drive times.

“With travelers eager to hit the road this summer, we’re expecting nationwide traffic volumes to increase about 15% over normal this holiday weekend. Drivers around major metro areas must be prepared for significantly more delay,” says Bob Pishue, transportation analyst, INRIX. “Knowing when and where congestion will build can help drivers avoid the stress of sitting in traffic. Our advice is to avoid traveling on Thursday and Friday afternoon, along with Monday mid-day.”

Worst Corridors and Times to Travel

Metro Area Corridor Peak Congestion % over Normal
Atlanta I-75 N, Jodeco Road to Jenkinsburg Road  Friday, 1:00–3:00PM 50%
Boston I-95 S, MA-10 to Sanford Road Monday, 3:00–5:00PM 330%
Chicago  I-90 E, W Roosevelt Road to I-294 Friday, 4:00–6:00PM 50%
Detroit I-75 N, 12 Mile Road to Oakland St Friday, 3:00–6:00PM 50%
Houston   I-10 W, Bernardo Road to Pin Oak Road Saturday, 8:00–10:00AM 50%
Los Angeles I-405 N, I-5 to Jefferson Blvd Friday, 3:00–5:00PM  10%
New York  I-278 E, Bronx River to Williamsburg St Thursday, 3:00–5:00PM 30%
San Francisco  CA-17 N, Lark Ave to Mt Hermon Road Monday, 6:00–8:00PM 340%
Seattle     I-5 S, Capitol Blvd (Olympia) to JBLM Friday, 1:00–3:00PM 20%
Washington DC I-95 S, Route 3 to Dumfries Road Thursday, 2:00–4:00PM 30%

Source: INRIX
 

Daily Worst and Best Times to Travel 

Date     Worst Time Best Time
Thursday     3:00 - 5:00PM After 7:00PM
Friday     4:00 - 5:00PM   Before 12:00PM
Saturday     11:00AM - 1:00PM After 2:00PM
Sunday     Free flow expected 
Monday     4:00 - 5:00PM Before 1:00PM

Source: INRIX

 

Travelers: Prepare for Higher Prices
While AAA found average airfares have declined 2% compared to last Independence Day, travelers can expect to find higher prices for hotels and car rentals as demand climbs. Mid-range hotel rates have increased between 32% and 35%, with average nightly rates ranging between $156 and $398 for AAA Two Diamond and AAA Three Diamond hotels, respectively. 

Daily car rental rates have increased 86% compared to last Independence Day, topping out at $166. Consumers have experienced high costs and limited availability of rental cars in some markets, due to the chip shortage impacting auto manufacturers. This production delay has presented a domino effect as rental car companies work to increase their inventory of new vehicles in time to meet the increased demand for domestic road travel.

The 43.6 million Americans expected to travel by car this Independence Day can expect gas prices to be the most expensive since 2014 with the national average likely to remain above $3 per gallon.

“Higher gas prices won’t deter road trippers this summer. In fact, we’re expecting record-breaking levels of car travel this July Fourth,” said Jeanette C. McGee, AAA spokesperson. “Though prices will remain above $3 a gallon, travelers are likely to look for more free activities or eat out less, but still take their vacations as planned.”

AAA members can save on gas by joining the Fuel Rewards at Shell program. Save 30 cents per gallon on your first fill-up at Shell when you join between July 1 and August 31, 2021. Join now at AAA.com/Shell

More Tips for Travelers
While many aspects of daily life start to return closer to a pre-pandemic normal, AAA cautions that the travel landscape has changed. Remember to exercise caution while traveling and consider working with a travel agent to plan your trip. They can help if you need to make any last-minute changes to travel plans, explore travel insurance options and help you plan a vacation that meets your needs and comfort-level this summer. 

reasons to use a travel agent

Although the CDC advises that fully vaccinated people can travel domestically at low risk to themselves, it’s important to keep in mind that some local and state travel restrictions may still remain in place. Travelers can refer to AAA’s COVID-19 Travel Restrictions Map and TripTik.AAA.com for the latest information to help plan their trip. 

For travelers who are not vaccinated but choose to travel, CDC recommends that you practice social distancing, wear a mask, wash your hands, and get tested for COVID-19 before and after travel.

Regardless of vaccination status, masks are required on planes, buses, trains, and other forms of public transportation traveling into, within, or out of the United States and in U.S. transportation hubs such as airports and stations. 

Make Sure Your Car is Road Trip-Ready 
Before hitting the road, AAA reminds motorists to plan their route in advance and ensure their vehicle is ready to avoid a breakdown. AAA expects to rescue more than 460,000 Americans at the roadside this Independence Day weekend. 

AAA makes it easy to request assistance—by phone or text (1-800-AAA-HELP), app or online—and members can track the service technician’s progress. Also, don’t forget an emergency roadside kit and pack extra snacks as well as cleaning supplies, including disinfecting wipes. 

Regardless of how you plan to get to your destination, AAA advises travelers to seek the advice of a knowledgeable travel agent to help plan their trips this Independence Day. To get started and to learn more, visit AAA.com/Travel.

Methodology:
AAA’s projections are based on economic forecasting and research by IHS Markit. For the purposes of this forecast, the Independence Day holiday travel period is defined as Thursday, July 1 through Monday, July 5. When the Fourth of July falls on any day of the week other than a Wednesday, it is considered to be a five-day holiday period. The travel forecast was prepared the week of June 1, 2021.

In cooperation with AAA, IHS Markit developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes, using macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including prices of gasoline, airline travel and hotel stays. For the 2021 Independence Day holiday travel forecast, IHS Markit also examined changes in the IHS Markit containment index regarding COVID 19–related restrictions and activity.

About INRIX:
INRIX is the global leader in connected car services and transportation analytics. Leveraging big data and the cloud, INRIX delivers comprehensive services and solutions to help move people, cities and businesses forward. INRIX’s partners are automakers, governments, mobile operators, developers, advertisers, as well as enterprises large and small.

About IHS Markit:
IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO) is a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 business and government customers, including 80 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth.

AAA’s expert travel consultants can help travelers plan their perfect getaway – simply stop by a AAA branch, call (888) 320-3163, or visit:

AAA Travel

Add new comment